![]() ![]() ![]() While overly pessimistic estimates of an adversary are surely problematic, overestimating one’s own capabilities and performance appear to be the more consistent and costly default. Norman Dixon identified four common factors of military failures: overconfidence underestimating the enemy ignoring intelligence reports and wasting manpower. Positive illusions about our own performance and about the future are arguably important for physical and mental health, but cause problems when they diverge too far from reality. Human inclinations toward overly optimistic judgments about the future, inflating potential benefits and downplaying risks, are also well– recognized. That we tend to rate ourselves as “ better than average” is a well-researched phenomenon. The tendency to perceive our current and future actions and performance in an overly positive light is a form of self-deception common in human behavior, including military history. As a result, he concluded: “A fearfully severe lesson was necessary to remove the veil from the eyes of those, who, drawing their conclusions from their wishes, would consider Afghanistan a settled country.” Eyre noted that, prior to the slaughter of some 4,500 soldiers and 12,000 civilians, senior leaders largely ignored warnings of the security situation on the ground and the military’s unpreparedness in Kabul. Vincent Eyre, one of the few survivors of the annihilation of the British army in Afghanistan in 1842, wrote an account of the disastrous campaign that still serves as a warning against undue optimism in military operations. ![]()
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